⚾MLB Tuesday best bets: Expect a pitching duel in Los Angeles👀
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We started the week on a strong note, cashing two of three plays on Monday night.
We'll look to build on that with three more plays - a total, a K prop, and a batting prop - for Tuesday night's card. Let's dig in.
Naturally, it is an under - rather than an over - that stands out the most in this spot.
The Twins will have to deal with an in-form Clayton Kershaw. While his best days are behind him, he remains one of the better pitchers around. He owns a 2.36 ERA, 3.28 xERA, and is mowing down more than 10 batters per nine innings via strikeout.
Kershaw will be a thorn in the side of the Twins for a couple reasons. First and foremost, he's really good. He's also a lefty - and the Twins don't fare well against them.
The Twins own a .279 wOBA (28th) and 26.5% strikeout rate (28th) against left-handed pitchers over the past month. They do not appear to be the team that can really cause problems for Kershaw, who has allowed more than two runs once over the last six starts. He should be able to keep the Twins to a low number.
Bailey Ober looks capable of slowing down the Dodgers as well. That's not to say he'll completely neutralize them - they have a lot of talent and are much better against righties than the Twins are against lefties - but there is a lot to be encouraged about when popping the hood.
Ober owns a 3.31 FIP, his hard contact rate is below 30%, and he is allowing only 0.74 homers per nine innings. He's not giving up a ton of power, which helps him limit the damage when he does get into trouble.
I don't fully trust Minnesota's bullpen - it ranks 23rd in FIP the past couple of weeks - so I think the better route is to play the under over the first half of the game. That keeps our fate in the hands of two strong pitchers.
Bet: F5 Under 4.5 (-125)
He has gone over the number only twice through eight starts, with those two exceptions coming against the Athletics and Tigers - two putrid offensive teams. Bieber has registered no more than four punch outs in any other start.
I'm not expecting a ceiling game from him against the White Sox. As underwhelming as they've been this season, they haven't struck out a lot. They are tied for eighth in terms of lowest strikeout rate this season, sandwiched between the Yankees and Rays.
It's not that they are an extremely disciplined team that takes a ton of pitches and draws a lot of walks. They just put the ball in play a lot.
Bieber's strikeout rate is at the lowest point of his career, and his FIP and xERA are up, so he should play into that and allow for the White Sox to make consistent contact, be it good contact or not.
Look for Bieber to go under the number for the seventh time in nine starts.
He finds himself in an optimal matchup Tuesday night, squaring off against Kyle Muller and the Athletics. Muller owns a 7.34 ERA, and his underlying numbers - be it xERA, FIP, etc. - are even worse. He gives up a ton of hard contact and is consistently knocked all around the park.
With the way Walker is swinging the bat, he can likely get the job done within a couple of ABs against Muller. If all else fails, though, Walker can look forward to facing the league's worst bullpen when Muller exits the game.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Sports gambling forum www.thegx.ca/forum copied and pasted this from the web🍻
TheGx sports betting forum copy and paste machines reporting:
We started the week on a strong note, cashing two of three plays on Monday night.
We'll look to build on that with three more plays - a total, a K prop, and a batting prop - for Tuesday night's card. Let's dig in.
Twins (+170) @ Dodgers (-200)
The Twins enter this game in their finest offensive form of the season. They have scored 35 runs over the past three contests while plating no fewer than eight in any of them.Naturally, it is an under - rather than an over - that stands out the most in this spot.
The Twins will have to deal with an in-form Clayton Kershaw. While his best days are behind him, he remains one of the better pitchers around. He owns a 2.36 ERA, 3.28 xERA, and is mowing down more than 10 batters per nine innings via strikeout.
Kershaw will be a thorn in the side of the Twins for a couple reasons. First and foremost, he's really good. He's also a lefty - and the Twins don't fare well against them.
The Twins own a .279 wOBA (28th) and 26.5% strikeout rate (28th) against left-handed pitchers over the past month. They do not appear to be the team that can really cause problems for Kershaw, who has allowed more than two runs once over the last six starts. He should be able to keep the Twins to a low number.
Bailey Ober looks capable of slowing down the Dodgers as well. That's not to say he'll completely neutralize them - they have a lot of talent and are much better against righties than the Twins are against lefties - but there is a lot to be encouraged about when popping the hood.
Ober owns a 3.31 FIP, his hard contact rate is below 30%, and he is allowing only 0.74 homers per nine innings. He's not giving up a ton of power, which helps him limit the damage when he does get into trouble.
I don't fully trust Minnesota's bullpen - it ranks 23rd in FIP the past couple of weeks - so I think the better route is to play the under over the first half of the game. That keeps our fate in the hands of two strong pitchers.
Bet: F5 Under 4.5 (-125)
Shane Bieber under 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
Bieber must've misplaced his strikeout prowess over the off-season because he hasn't shown it much recently.He has gone over the number only twice through eight starts, with those two exceptions coming against the Athletics and Tigers - two putrid offensive teams. Bieber has registered no more than four punch outs in any other start.
I'm not expecting a ceiling game from him against the White Sox. As underwhelming as they've been this season, they haven't struck out a lot. They are tied for eighth in terms of lowest strikeout rate this season, sandwiched between the Yankees and Rays.
It's not that they are an extremely disciplined team that takes a ton of pitches and draws a lot of walks. They just put the ball in play a lot.
Bieber's strikeout rate is at the lowest point of his career, and his FIP and xERA are up, so he should play into that and allow for the White Sox to make consistent contact, be it good contact or not.
Look for Bieber to go under the number for the seventh time in nine starts.
Christian Walker over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Walker is an absolute menace against left-handed pitchers. He owns a .437 wOBA and .429 ISO against lefties, making him one of the most powerful and dangerous hitters in the league.He finds himself in an optimal matchup Tuesday night, squaring off against Kyle Muller and the Athletics. Muller owns a 7.34 ERA, and his underlying numbers - be it xERA, FIP, etc. - are even worse. He gives up a ton of hard contact and is consistently knocked all around the park.
With the way Walker is swinging the bat, he can likely get the job done within a couple of ABs against Muller. If all else fails, though, Walker can look forward to facing the league's worst bullpen when Muller exits the game.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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